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Author Topic: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  (Read 9756 times)

Fee Bee

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2012, 05:36:22 PM »
Hat tip Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/baltic-dry-plunges-42-more-seasonal-norm-start-year

Quote
Whether it is an over-abundance of ships (mis-allocation of capital) or a slowing global growth story (aggregate demand), the crash in the Baltic Dry Index has been significant to say the least. Seasonals are prevalent (and Chinese New Year impacts) but to try and clean up that perspective, we find that so far this year the Baltic Dry has fallen 42% more than its seasonal normal and is down by more than 50% since 12/30/11. Nothing to see here move along.

Scary  :o

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kermujin

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2012, 11:47:13 PM »
Holy crap. I knew it was falling, but hadn't checked in for a while. Yikes!!
Agree that this should DEFINITELY be stickied. This is really the only indicator that carries real doom weight with me...
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TravelsHopefully

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2012, 12:51:47 AM »
OK - I've stickied it - if nothing happens in the next month or 2, I'll unstick it.
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spinski

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2012, 01:26:02 AM »
Still on a downward spiral, 753 at the latest count. I'm wondering if it'll get lower than last time following the oil spike in 2008 which was 630 or so. Be kinda ironic if it stops at 666 and stays there.... I'd be paying more attention but packing for a house move this week
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J.A.F.O.

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2012, 07:40:50 AM »
Quote from: TravelsHopefully on January 27, 2012, 12:51:47 AM
OK - I've stickied it - if nothing happens in the next month or 2, I'll unstick it.

Personally, I'd suggest leaving it there regardless..  even if nothing happens soon, at some point it's sure to.. and the BDI will likely be the canary in the coalmine..
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Yeah, people like to twist that around, I know.. they say "Well, if you don't vote, you have no right to complain." But where's the logic in that? If you vote, and you elect dishonest, incompetent people, and they get into office and screw everything up, well, you are responsible for what they have done. You caused the problem, you voted them in, you have no right to complain. I, on the other hand, who did not vote, who, in fact, did not even leave the house on election day, am in no way responsible for what these people have done, and have every right to complain as loud as I want about the mess you created that I had nothing to with. ~ George Carlin

kermujin

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2012, 05:35:09 PM »
Quote from: J.A.F.O. on January 27, 2012, 07:40:50 AM
Quote from: TravelsHopefully on January 27, 2012, 12:51:47 AM
OK - I've stickied it - if nothing happens in the next month or 2, I'll unstick it.

Personally, I'd suggest leaving it there regardless..  even if nothing happens soon, at some point it's sure to.. and the BDI will likely be the canary in the coalmine..

Agreed, JAFO. As well, there is a lag between the actions of the BDI and the impact at the ground level - it may take more than two months to really feel the full impact of this crash... :o
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haniel

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2012, 12:00:22 AM »
Thanks.  It's something I want to keep track of but often forget.

I'm going to be shipping a container of stuff to the UK in a few months.  Hopefully there's still be a shipping industry.   >:(

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Jock

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2012, 12:47:13 PM »
Still going down.

726 now

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Fee Bee

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2012, 10:27:28 PM »
Another good article from Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-baltic-dry-index-signals-renewed-market-decline

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What is the bottom line?  The stark decline in the BDI today should be taken very seriously.  Most similar declines have occurred right before or in tandem with economic instability and stock market upheaval.

Fee Bee
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kermujin

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2012, 11:38:52 PM »
Quote from: Fee Bee on January 30, 2012, 10:27:28 PM
Another good article from Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-baltic-dry-index-signals-renewed-market-decline

Quote
What is the bottom line?  The stark decline in the BDI today should be taken very seriously.  Most similar declines have occurred right before or in tandem with economic instability and stock market upheaval.

Fee Bee

God, that's a pretty bleak piece. Yeeks! Thanks for posting it. I think.  :-\
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J.A.F.O.

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2012, 10:23:24 AM »
Quote from: Jock on January 29, 2012, 12:47:13 PM
Still going down.

726 now



702 at the moment..

It's a little hard to be sure from the 5yr chart, but it bottomed out at around 700 back in December '08..  so this really is "holy shit" territory we're in right now..

« Last Edit: January 31, 2012, 10:27:55 AM by J.A.F.O. »
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We got further smashing windows than we ever got letting them smash our heads.
~ Christabel Pankhurst, Suffragette

What happens in disasters demonstrates everything an anarchist ever wanted to believe about the triumph of civil society and the failure of institutional authority. ~ Rebecca Solnit 'A Paradise Built in Hell'

I don't vote. Because I believe if you vote, you have no right to complain.
Yeah, people like to twist that around, I know.. they say "Well, if you don't vote, you have no right to complain." But where's the logic in that? If you vote, and you elect dishonest, incompetent people, and they get into office and screw everything up, well, you are responsible for what they have done. You caused the problem, you voted them in, you have no right to complain. I, on the other hand, who did not vote, who, in fact, did not even leave the house on election day, am in no way responsible for what these people have done, and have every right to complain as loud as I want about the mess you created that I had nothing to with. ~ George Carlin

TravelsHopefully

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #26 on: January 31, 2012, 12:12:08 PM »
I'm struggling to understand exactly what the BDI price $702 is a measure of (I've read loads of web pages)
I've found a few that say that the BDI is an average price per metric ton to ship dry bulk materials by sea, but that doesn't seem right to me. For example, back when the price was $230,000 there's no way that it would be cost effective to ship iron ore around. Or grain.
Actual freight costs from here: http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm showed a peak of $110 per metric ton for US grain to China back in 2008.

It also can't be the average cost per day of a whole ship - can it?
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Jock

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2012, 12:37:02 PM »
Absolute bottom was 663.

Baltic dry appears to measure the cost in US dollars per ton shipped per day gross before fuel etc are taken into account.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
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Gromit

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2012, 01:17:20 PM »
Quote from: Jock on January 31, 2012, 12:37:02 PM
Baltic dry appears to measure the cost in US dollars per ton shipped per day gross before fuel etc are taken into account.
Not sure, but that's not how I read the Wiki:
The BDI contains route assessments both on the basis of "USD paid per ton carried" ... and "USD paid per day"

I think they are somehow combining 2 different measures (#1 being "per ton" and #2 "per day") and producing some blended average. So I think it's either per ton OR per day.

But yeah, $200k+ seems rather high - unless we're talking of coal or ore equivalent load consisting of iPhones or some such high-value-per-weight items.
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TravelsHopefully

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Re: Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2012, 01:22:26 PM »
Quote from: Jock on January 31, 2012, 12:37:02 PM
Absolute bottom was 663.

Baltic dry appears to measure the cost in US dollars per ton shipped per day gross before fuel etc are taken into account.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
I just can't see how that can be the case Jock - if you look at the prices of stuff like wheat & steel http://www.steelonthenet.com/files/steel_costs_2008.html peaking at $629/tonne back in 2008, there's no way that people would ship scrap steel that cost $629/tonne if the shipping costs were $230,000 per metric ton (I've not bothered to convert between metric tons & imperial tonnes, as the difference is irrelevant compared to the prices we're talking about)
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